Publications

Geographical shifting of cholera burden in Africa and its implications for disease control
Cholera outbreaks cause substantial morbidity and mortality in Africa, yet changes in the geographic distribution of cholera burden …
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Diagnostic performance and kinetics of hepatitis E viral RNA and IgM antibody test positivity in a genotype 1 outbreak in South Sudan
BACKGROUND: Diagnostics are essential for understanding hepatitis E epidemiology, but the field performance of available tests remains …
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Understanding influences of care-seeking behaviors for diarrheal illnesses: A qualitative meta-synthesis
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Rapid tests as a practical alternative to slide agglutination for the confirmation of V. cholerae O1
Slide agglutination for serogroup and/or serotype identification is a crucial step for confirming cholera by culture. Rapid diagnostic …
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Protection from killed whole-cell cholera vaccines: a systematic review and meta-analysis
BACKGROUND: Killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccines (kOCVs) are a standard prevention and control measure in cholera-endemic areas and …
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Evolving infectious disease dynamics shape school-based intervention effectiveness
School-based interventions during epidemics are often controversial, as experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, where reducing …
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Whole genome sequencing and transmission analysis of Vibrio cholerae isolates from Eastern and Southern Africa: a genomic epidemiology study
BACKGROUND: Despite ongoing containment and vaccination efforts, cholera remains prevalent in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa. …
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High confidence and demand for hepatitis E vaccine during an outbreak in Bentiu, South Sudan: A qualitative study
In 2021 in response to an outbreak of hepatitis E in Bentiu internally displaced persons camp the South Sudanese Ministry of Health …
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Expanding cholera serosurveillance to vaccinated populations
Mass oral cholera vaccination campaigns targeted at subnational areas with high incidence are central to global cholera elimination …
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Continued T12 transmission and shared antibiotic resistance during 2018-2023 Vibrio cholerae outbreaks in Cameroon
Seventh pandemic Vibrio cholerae was first identified in Cameroon in 1971, causing several sporadic disease clusters with few cases. …
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The effectiveness of two doses of recombinant hepatitis E vaccine in response to an outbreak in Bentiu, South Sudan: a case-control and bias indicator study
BACKGROUND: Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is a leading cause of acute viral hepatitis, particularly in Asia and Africa, where HEV genotypes 1 …
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Disseminated mpox in an immunocompromised patient in DR Congo: a call for a shift from disease-focused to person-centred outbreak response
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Challenges with achieving and maintaining oral cholera vaccine coverage: insights from serial cross-sectional representative surveys in a cholera-endemic community in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
BACKGROUND: We conducted three serial cross-sectional representative surveys after a mass cholera vaccination campaign in Uvira, …
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Inferring the proportion of undetected cholera infections from serological and clinical surveillance in an immunologically naive population
Most infections with pandemic Vibrio cholerae are thought to result in subclinical disease and are not captured by surveillance. …
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Geospatial distribution of Hepatitis E seroprevalence in Nepal, 2021
BACKGROUND: Hepatitis E virus (HEV) causes acute jaundice and poses an important public health problem in low- and middle-income …
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Care seeking for diarrheal illness: a systematic review and meta-analysis
BACKGROUND: Monitoring and treating diarrheal illness often rely on individuals seeking care at hospitals or clinics. Cases that seek …
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Safety of hepatitis E vaccine in pregnancy: an emulated target trial following a mass reactive vaccination campaign in Bentiu internally displaced persons camp, South Sudan
BACKGROUND: Epidemic forms of hepatitis E cause high mortality among pregnant people, with case fatality risks over 30% and adverse …
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Superspreading of SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review and meta-analysis of event attack rates and individual transmission patterns
SARS-CoV-2 superspreading occurs when transmission is highly efficient and/or an individual infects many others, contributing to rapid …
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Challenges and Approaches to Establishing Multi-Pathogen Serosurveillance: Findings from the 2023 Serosurveillance Summit
Multiplex-based serological surveillance is a valuable but underutilized tool to understand gaps in population-level exposure, …
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Analysis of Cholera Risk in India: Insights from 2017-18 Serosurvey Data Integrated with Epidemiologic data and Societal Determinants from 2015-2019
BACKGROUND: Indian subcontinent being an important region in the fight to eliminate cholera needs better cholera surveillance. Current …
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Spatiotemporal Modeling of Cholera, Uvira, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2016-2020
We evaluated the spatiotemporal clustering of rapid diagnostic test-positive cholera cases in Uvira, eastern Democratic Republic of the …
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Improved water supply infrastructure to reduce acute diarrhoeal diseases and cholera in Uvira, Democratic Republic of the Congo: Results and lessons learned from a pragmatic trial
BACKGROUND: Safely managed drinking water is critical to prevent diarrhoeal diseases, including cholera, but evidence on the …
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Enhanced cholera surveillance to improve vaccination campaign efficiency
Systematic testing for Vibrio cholerae O1 is rare, which means that the world’s limited supply of oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) …
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Annual risk of hepatitis E virus infection and seroreversion: Insights from a serological cohort in Sitakunda, Bangladesh
Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is a major cause of acute jaundice in South Asia. Gaps in our understanding of transmission are driven by …
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Clinical surveillance systems obscure the true cholera infection burden in an endemic region
Our understanding of cholera transmission and burden largely relies on clinic-based surveillance, which can obscure trends, bias burden …
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Cholera Deaths During Outbreaks in Uvira, Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, 10-35 Months After Mass Vaccination
Our understanding of the burden and drivers of cholera mortality is hampered by limited surveillance and confirmation capacity. …
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Vaccination coverage and adverse events following a reactive vaccination campaign against hepatitis E in Bentiu displaced persons camp, South Sudan
INTRODUCTION: Hepatitis E (HEV) genotypes 1 and 2 are the common cause of jaundice and acute viral hepatitis that can cause large-scale …
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Effectiveness of one dose of killed oral cholera vaccine in an endemic community in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a matched case-control study
BACKGROUND: A global shortage of cholera vaccines has increased the use of single-dose regimens, rather than the standard two-dose …
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Estimating the proportion of clinically suspected cholera cases that are true Vibrio cholerae infections: A systematic review and meta-analysis
BACKGROUND: Cholera surveillance relies on clinical diagnosis of acute watery diarrhea. Suspected cholera case definitions have high …
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National Hospital-Based Sentinel Surveillance for Cholera in Bangladesh: Epidemiological Results from 2014 to 2021
Despite focusing on cholera burden, epidemiologic studies in Bangladesh tend to be limited in geographic scope. National-level cholera …
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Water, Sanitation, and Cholera in Sub-Saharan Africa
Improvements in water and sanitation should reduce cholera risk though the associations between cholera and specific water and …
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Population-Based Serologic Survey of Vibrio cholerae Antibody Titers before Cholera Outbreak, Haiti, 2022
A Vibrio cholerae O1 outbreak emerged in Haiti in October 2022 after years of cholera absence. In samples from a 2021 serosurvey, we …
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Long term anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody kinetics and correlate of protection against Omicron BA.1/BA.2 infection
Binding antibody levels against SARS-CoV-2 have shown to be correlates of protection against infection with pre-Omicron lineages. This …
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[Cholera and Climate: What do we know?]
Cholera is an acute diarrheal disease caused by the bacteria Vibrio cholerae. Each year, 100'000 people die from cholera. The links …
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Implementation considerations in case-area targeted interventions to prevent cholera transmission in Northeast Nigeria: A qualitative analysis
Cholera outbreaks primarily occur in areas lacking adequate water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH), and infection can cause severe …
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Household Transmission Dynamics of Seasonal Human Coronaviruses
BACKGROUND: Household transmission studies inform how viruses spread among close contacts, but few characterize household transmission …
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Predicting Vibrio cholerae infection and symptomatic disease: a systems serology study
BACKGROUND: Vibriocidal antibodies are currently the best characterised correlate of protection against cholera and are used to gauge …
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Hepatitis E Virus Outbreak among Tigray War Refugees from Ethopia, Sudan
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A population-based serological survey of Vibrio cholerae antibody titers in Ouest Department, Haiti in the year prior to the 2022 cholera outbreak
After three years with no confirmed cholera cases in Haiti, an outbreak of Vibrio cholerae O1 emerged in October 2022. Levels of …
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Spatial distribution and determinants of childhood vaccination refusal in the United States
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Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and cross-variant neutralization capacity after the Omicron BA.2 wave in Geneva, Switzerland: a population-based study
BACKGROUND: More than two years into the COVID-19 pandemic, most of the population has developed anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies from …
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Comparison of COVID-19 Pandemic Waves in 10 Countries in Southern Africa, 2020-2021
We used publicly available data to describe epidemiology, genomic surveillance, and public health and social measures from the first 3 …
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Seroincidence of Enteric Fever, Juba, South Sudan
We applied a new serosurveillance tool to estimate typhoidal Salmonella burden using samples collected during 2020 from a population in …
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Protocol to implement a syndromic surveillance survey of COVID-19 in Malawi
INTRODUCTION: Malawi experienced two waves of COVID-19 between April 2020 and February 2021. A High negative impact of COVID-19 was …
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Identifying Recent Cholera Infections Using a Multiplex Bead Serological Assay
Estimates of incidence based on medically attended cholera can be severely biased. Vibrio cholerae O1 leaves a lasting antibody signal …
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Building an integrated serosurveillance platform to inform public health interventions: Insights from an experts' meeting on serum biomarkers
The use of biomarkers to measure immune responses in serum is crucial for understanding population-level exposure and susceptibility to …
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The first reactive vaccination campaign against hepatitis E
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Epidemiological, virological and serological investigation of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak (Alpha variant) in a primary school: A prospective longitudinal study
OBJECTIVES: To report a prospective epidemiological, virological and serological investigation of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in a primary …
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Effectiveness of case-area targeted interventions including vaccination on the control of epidemic cholera: protocol for a prospective observational study
INTRODUCTION: Cholera outbreaks in fragile settings are prone to rapid expansion. Case-area targeted interventions (CATIs) have been …
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SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Prevalence and Population-Based Death Rates, Greater Omdurman, Sudan
In a cross-sectional survey in Omdurman, Sudan, during March-April 2021, we estimated that 54.6% of the population had detectable …
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Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Saudi Arabia
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Cholera outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa during 2010-2019: a descriptive analysis
BACKGROUND: Cholera remains a public health threat but is inequitably distributed across sub-Saharan Africa. Lack of standardized …
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Applying mixture model methods to SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey data from Geneva
Serosurveys are an important tool to estimate the true extent of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. So far, most serosurvey data have …
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The seasonality of cholera in sub-Saharan Africa: a statistical modelling study
BACKGROUND: Cholera remains a major threat in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where some of the highest case-fatality rates are reported. …
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In-person schooling and associated COVID-19 risk in the United States over spring semester 2021
Because of the importance of schools to childhood development, the relationship between in-person schooling and COVID-19 risk has been …
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Global diversity of policy, coverage, and demand of COVID-19 vaccines: a descriptive study
BACKGROUND: Hundreds of millions of doses of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines have been administered globally, but progress …
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Cholera
Cholera was first described in the areas around the Bay of Bengal and spread globally, resulting in seven pandemics during the past two …
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A SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1.1.529) variant outbreak in a primary school in Geneva, Switzerland
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Risk of Reinfection After Seroconversion to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): A Population-based Propensity-score Matched Cohort Study
BACKGROUND: Serological assays detecting anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies are being widely …
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Global landscape of SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance and data sharing
Genomic surveillance has shaped our understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants. We …
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SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence before Delta Variant Surge, Chattogram, Bangladesh, March-June 2021
A March-June 2021 representative serosurvey among Sitakunda subdistrict (Chattogram, Bangladesh) residents found an adjusted prevalence …
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High Infection Attack Rate after SARS-CoV-2 Delta Surge, Chattogram, Bangladesh
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The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset
E.Y. Cramer, E.L. Ray, M. Cornell, J. Bracher, A. Brennen, A.J.C. Rivadeneira, A. Gerding, K. House, D. Jayawardena, A.H. Kanji, A. Khandelwal, K. Le, V. Mody, J. Niemi, A. Stark, A. Shah, N. Wattanchit, M.W. Zorn, T. Gneiting, A. Mühlemann, Y. Gu, K. Chintanippu, V. Jivane, A. Khurana, A. Kumar, A. Lakhani, P. Mehrotra, S. Pasumarty, M. Shrivastav, J. You, N. Bannur, A. Deva, S. Jain, M. Kulkarni, S. Merugu, A. Raval, S. Shingi, A. Tiwari, J. White, A. Adiga, B. Hurt, B. Lewis, M. Marathe, A.S. Peddireddy, P. Porebski, S. Venkatramanan, M. Dahan, S. Fox, K. Gaither, M. Lachmann, L.A. Meyers, J.G. Scott, M. Tec, S. Woody, A. Srivastava, T. Xu, J.C. Cegan, I.D. Dettwiller, W.P. England, M.W. Farthing, G.E. George, R.H. Hunter, B. Lafferty, I. Linkov, M.L. Mayo, M.D. Parno, M.A. Rowland, B.D. Trump, S. Chen, S.V. Faraone, J. Hess, C.P. Morley, A. Salekin, Y. Zhang-James, T.M. Baer, S.M. Corsetti, M.C. Eisenberg, K. Falb, E.T. Martin, E. McCauley, R.L. Myers, T. Schwarz, G.C. Gibson, D. Sheldon, Y. Ma, D. Wu, R. Yu, X. Jin, Y.-X. Wang, X. Yan, Y.Q. Chen, L. Guo, Y. Zhao, J. Chen, Q. Gu, P. Xu, W. Zhang, D. Zou, I. Chattopadhyay, Y. Huang, G. Lu, R. Pfeiffer, T. Sumner, D. Wang, Z. Zou, H. Biegel, J. Lega, F. Hussain, Z. Khan, F. Van Bussel, S. McConnell, S.L. Guertin, C. Hulme-Lowe, V.P. Nagraj, S.D. Turner, B. Bejar, C. Choirat, A. Flahault, E. Krymova, G. Lee, E. Manetti, K. Namigai, G. Obozinski, T. Sun, D. Thanou, X. Ban, Y. Shi, R. Walraven, Q.-J. Hong, A. Van De Walle, M. Ben-Nun, S. Riley, P. Riley, J. Turtle, D. Cao, J. Galasso, J.H. Cho, A. Jo, D. DesRoches, P. Forli, B. Hamory, U. Koyluoglu, C. Kyriakides, H. Leis, J. Milliken, M. Moloney, J. Morgan, N. Nirgudkar, G. Ozcan, N. Piwonka, M. Ravi, C. Schrader, E. Shakhnovich, D. Siegel, R. Spatz, C. Stiefeling, B. Wilkinson, A. Wong, S. Cavany, G. España, S. Moore, R. Oidtman, A. Perkins, J.S. Ivy, M.E. Mayorga, J. Mele, E.T. Rosenstrom, J.L. Swann, A. Kraus, D. Kraus, J. Bian, W. Cao, Z. Gao, J.L. Ferres, C. Li, T.-Y. Liu, X. Xie, S. Zhang, S. Zheng, M. Chinazzi, A. Vespignani, X. Xiong, J.T. Davis, K. Mu, A.P. Piontti, J. Baek, V. Farias, A. Georgescu, R. Levi, D. Sinha, J. Wilde, A. Zheng, O.S. Lami, A. Bennouna, D.N. Ndong, G. Perakis, D. Singhvi, I. Spantidakis, L. Thayaparan, A. Tsiourvas, S. Weisberg, A. Jadbabaie, A. Sarker, D. Shah, L.A. Celi, N.D. Penna, S. Sundar, A. Berlin, P.D. Gandhi, T. McAndrew, M. Piriya, Y. Chen, W. Hlavacek, Y.T. Lin, A. Mallela, E. Miller, J. Neumann, R. Posner, R. Wolfinger, L. Castro, G. Fairchild, I. Michaud, D. Osthus, D. Wolffram, D. Karlen, M.J. Panaggio, M. Kinsey, L.C. Mullany, K. Rainwater-Lovett, L. Shin, K. Tallaksen, S. Wilson, M. Brenner, M. Coram, J.K. Edwards, K. Joshi, E. Klein, J.D. Hulse, K.H. Grantz, A.L. Hill, K. Kaminsky, J. Kaminsky, L.T. Keegan, S.A. Lauer, E.C. Lee, J.C. Lemaitre, J. Lessler, H.R. Meredith, J. Perez-Saez, S. Shah, C.P. Smith, S.A. Truelove, J. Wills, L. Gardner, M. Marshall, K. Nixon, J.C. Burant, J. Budzinski, W.-H. Chiang, G. Mohler, J. Gao, L. Glass, C. Qian, J. Romberg, R. Sharma, J. Spaeder, J. Sun, C. Xiao, L. Gao, Z. Gu, M. Kim, X. Li, G. Wang, L. Wang, S. Yu, S. Bhatia, P. Nouvellet, R. Barber, E. Gaikedu, S. Hay, S. Lim, C. Murray, D. Pigott, R.C. Reiner, P. Baccam, H.L. Gurung, S.A. Stage, B.T. Suchoski, C.-Y. Fong, D.-Y. Yeung, B. Adhikari, J. Cui, B.A. Prakash, A. Rodríguez, A. Tabassum, J. Xie, J. Asplund, A. Baxter, P. Keskinocak, B.E. Oruc, N. Serban, S.O. Arik, M. Dusenberry, A. Epshteyn, E. Kanal, L.T. Le, C.-L. Li, T. Pfister, R. Sinha, T. Tsai, N. Yoder, J. Yoon, L. Zhang, D. Wilson, A.A. Belov, C.C. Chow, R.C. Gerkin, O.N. Yogurtcu, M. Ibrahim, T. Lacroix, M. Le, J. Liao, M. Nickel, L. Sagun, S. Abbott, N.I. Bosse, S. Funk, J. Hellewell, S.R. Meakin, K. Sherratt, R. Kalantari, M. Zhou, M. Karimzadeh, B. Lucas, T. Ngo, H. Zoraghein, B. Vahedi, Z. Wang, Sen Pei, J. Shaman, T.K. Yamana, D. Bertsimas, M.L. Li, S. Soni, H.T. Bouardi, M. Adee, T. Ayer, J. Chhatwal, O.O. Dalgic, M.A. Ladd, B.P. Linas, P. Mueller, J. Xiao, J. Bosch, A. Wilson, P. Zimmerman, Q. Wang, Y. Wang, S. Xie, D. Zeng, J. Bien, L. Brooks, A. Green, A.J. Hu, M. Jahja, D. McDonald, B. Narasimhan, C. Politsch, S. Rajanala, A. Rumack, N. Simon, R.J. Tibshirani, R. Tibshirani, V. Ventura, L. Wasserman, J.M. Drake, E.B. O?Dea, Y. Abu-Mostafa, R. Bathwal, N.A. Chang, P. Chitta, A. Erickson, S. Goel, J. Gowda, Q. Jin, H.C. Jo, J. Kim, P. Kulkarni, S.M. Lushtak, E. Mann, M. Popken, C. Soohoo, K. Tirumala, A. Tseng, V. Varadarajan, J. Vytheeswaran, C. Wang, A. Yeluri, D. Yurk, M. Zhang, A. Zlokapa, R. Pagano, C. Jain, V. Tomar, L. Ho, H. Huynh, Q. Tran, V.K. Lopez, J.W. Walker, R.B. Slayton, M.A. Johansson, M. Biggerstaff, N.G. Reich
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Specchio-COVID19 cohort study: a longitudinal follow-up of SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey participants in the canton of Geneva, Switzerland
INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected billions of people around the world both directly through the infection itself and …
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Combining antibody markers for serosurveillance of SARS-CoV-2 to estimate seroprevalence and time-since-infection
Serosurveillance is an important epidemiologic tool for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), used to estimate …
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Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and retrospective mortality in a refugee camp, Dagahaley, Kenya
BACKGROUND: Camps of forcibly displaced populations are considered to be at risk of large COVID-19 outbreaks. Low screening rates and …
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Occupational risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and reinfection during the second pandemic surge: a cohort study
OBJECTIVES: This cohort study including essential workers, assessed the risk and incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the second …
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Hepatitis E in Bangladesh: Insights From a National Serosurvey
BACKGROUND: Hepatitis E virus (HEV) genotypes 1 and 2 are a major cause of avoidable morbidity and mortality in South Asia. Despite the …
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Case-area targeted preventive interventions to interrupt cholera transmission: Current implementation practices and lessons learned
BACKGROUND: Cholera is a major cause of mortality and morbidity in low-resource and humanitarian settings. It is transmitted by …
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Association between SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in Nursing Home Staff and Resident COVID-19 Cases and Mortality: A Cross-Sectional Study
The burden of COVID-19 has disproportionately impacted the elderly, who are at increased risk of severe disease, hospitalization, and …
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Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies, risk factors for infection and associated symptoms in Geneva, Switzerland: a population-based study
Aims: To assess SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence over the first epidemic wave in the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, as well as risk factors …
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Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies 6 months into the vaccination campaign in Geneva, Switzerland, 1 June to 7 July 2021
BackgroundUp-to-date seroprevalence estimates are critical to describe the SARS-CoV-2 immune landscape and to guide public health …
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Putting rapid tests to work in surveillance and control of cholera
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A public health strategy for SARS-CoV-2, grounded in science, should guide Swiss schools through the coming winter
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Persistence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies: immunoassay heterogeneity and implications for serosurveillance
OBJECTIVES: Serological studies have been critical in tracking the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. Data on anti-SARS-CoV-2 …
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Seroprevalence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 IgG in Juba, South Sudan, 2020(1)
Relatively few coronavirus disease cases and deaths have been reported from sub-Saharan Africa, although the extent of its spread …
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Moving forward with an imperfect vaccine
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Large variation in anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence among essential workers in Geneva, Switzerland
Limited data exist on SARS-CoV-2 infection rates across sectors and occupations, hindering our ability to make rational policy, …
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Insights into household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from a population-based serological survey
Understanding the risk of infection from household- and community-exposures and the transmissibility of asymptomatic infections is …
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Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States
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Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021
Rebecca K. Borchering, Cécile Viboud, Emily Howerton, Claire P. Smith, Shaun Truelove, Michael C. Runge, Nicholas G. Reich, Lucie Contamin, John Levander, Jessica Salerno, Wilbert Van Panhuis, Matt Kinsey, Kate Tallaksen, R. Freddy Obrecht, Laura Asher, Cash Costello, Michael Kelbaugh, Shelby Wilson, Lauren Shin, Molly E. Gallagher, Luke C. Mullany, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Juan Dent, Kyra H. Grantz, Joshua Kaminsky, Stephen A. Lauer, Elizabeth C. Lee, Hannah R. Meredith, Javier Perez-Saez, Lindsay T. Keegan, Dean Karlen, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Ajitesh Srivastava, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Bryan Lewis, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, James Schlitt, Patrick Corbett, Pyrros Alexander Telionis, Lijing Wang, Akhil Sai Peddireddy, Benjamin Hurt, Jiangzhuo Chen, Anil Vullikanti, Madhav Marathe, Jessica M. Healy, Rachel B. Slayton, Matthew Biggerstaff, Michael A. Johansson, Katriona Shea, Justin Lessler
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Coordinated Strategy for a Model-Based Decision Support Tool for Coronavirus Disease, Utah, USA
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Comprehensive mapping of neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants induced by natural infection or vaccination
BACKGROUND: Immunity after SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination has been threatened by recently emerged SARS-CoV-2 variants. A …
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Spatial aggregation choice in the era of digital and administrative surveillance data
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Setting a Course for Preventing Hepatitis E in Low and Lower-Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review of Burden and Risk Factors
BACKGROUND: Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is responsible for outbreaks of acute jaundice in Africa and Asia, many of which occur among …
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Maximizing and evaluating the impact of test-trace-isolate programs: A modeling study
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Household COVID-19 risk and in-person schooling
In-person schooling has proved contentious and difficult to study throughout the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 …
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A scenario modeling pipeline for COVID-19 emergency planning
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Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Juba, South Sudan: a population-based study
BACKGROUND: Relatively few COVID-19 cases and deaths have been reported through much of sub-Saharan Africa, including South Sudan, …
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Serological evidence of human infection with SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review and meta-analysis
BACKGROUND: A rapidly increasing number of serological surveys for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 have been reported worldwide. We aimed to …
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Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies after the second pandemic peak
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Socioeconomically Disadvantaged Neighborhoods Face Increased Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 Clusters
Objective: To investigate the association between socioeconomic deprivation and the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 clusters. Methods: We …
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Insight into the practical performance of RT-PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2 using serological data: a cohort study
BACKGROUND: Virological detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) through RT-PCR has limitations for …
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Vibrio cholerae O1 transmission in Bangladesh: insights from a nationally representative serosurvey
BACKGROUND: Pandemic Vibrio cholerae from cholera-endemic countries around the Bay of Bengal regularly seed epidemics globally. Without …
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Successive epidemic waves of cholera in South Sudan between 2014 and 2017: a descriptive epidemiological study
BACKGROUND: Between 2014 and 2017, successive cholera epidemics occurred in South Sudan within the context of civil war, population …
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Cholera in Haiti - Authors' reply
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Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2
Estimating the size of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the infection severity of severe acute respiratory syndrome …
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The engines of SARS-CoV-2 spread
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Persistence and decay of human antibody responses to the receptor binding domain of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in COVID-19 patients
We measured plasma and/or serum antibody responses to the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike (S) protein of SARS-CoV-2 in 343 …
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Highly targeted spatiotemporal interventions against cholera epidemics, 2000-19: a scoping review
Globally, cholera epidemics continue to challenge disease control. Although mass campaigns covering large populations are commonly used …
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Field Evaluation of Cholkit Rapid Diagnostic Test for Vibrio Cholerae O1 During a Cholera Outbreak in Malawi, 2018
Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for cholera are an important emerging tool for surveillance, yet the currently available tests have …
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Epidemiology of Cholera in Bangladesh: Findings From Nationwide Hospital-based Surveillance, 2014-2018
BACKGROUND: Despite advances in prevention, detection, and treatment, cholera remains a major public health problem in Bangladesh and …
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Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17
BACKGROUND: Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the …
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HIT-COVID, a global database tracking public health interventions to COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic has sparked unprecedented public health and social measures (PHSM) by national and local governments, including …
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Achieving coordinated national immunity and cholera elimination in Haiti through vaccination: a modelling study
BACKGROUND: Cholera was introduced into Haiti in 2010. Since then, more than 820 000 cases and nearly 10 000 deaths have been reported. …
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Serology-informed estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality risk in Geneva, Switzerland
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The potential impact of COVID-19 in refugee camps in Bangladesh and beyond: A modeling study
BACKGROUND: COVID-19 could have even more dire consequences in refugees camps than in general populations. Bangladesh has confirmed …
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Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Geneva, Switzerland (SEROCoV-POP): a population-based study
BACKGROUND: Assessing the burden of COVID-19 on the basis of medically attended case numbers is suboptimal given its reliance on …
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Clinical and Epidemiological Aspects of Diphtheria: A Systematic Review and Pooled Analysis
BACKGROUND: Diphtheria, once a major cause of childhood morbidity and mortality, all but disappeared following introduction of …
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Serology for SARS-CoV-2: Apprehensions, opportunities, and the path forward
Serological testing for SARS-CoV-2 has enormous potential to contribute to COVID-19 pandemic response efforts. However, the required …
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Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Switzerland
Following the rapid dissemination of COVID-19 cases in Switzerland, large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were …
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Sero-evaluation of Immune Responses to Vibrio cholerae in a Postelimination Setting
Cholera remains a significant public health problem worldwide. In settings of declining incidence, serosurveillance may be used to …
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From China: hope and lessons for COVID-19 control
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The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application
BACKGROUND: A novel human coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was identified in China in …
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Alternative observational designs to estimate the effectiveness of one dose of oral cholera vaccine in Lusaka, Zambia
We conducted a matched case-control (MCC), test-negative case-control (TNCC) and case-cohort study in 2016 in Lusaka, Zambia, following …
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The projected impact of geographic targeting of oral cholera vaccination in sub-Saharan Africa: A modeling study
BACKGROUND: Cholera causes an estimated 100,000 deaths annually worldwide, with the majority of burden reported in sub-Saharan Africa. …
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Mitigating Cholera in the Aftermath of Cyclone Idai
Catastrophic damage and floods followed the deadliest cyclone on record for the Southern Hemisphere. In the aftermath of Cyclone Idai, …
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Immune responses to O-specific polysaccharide (OSP) in North American adults infected with Vibrio cholerae O1 Inaba
BACKGROUND: Antibodies targeting O-specific polysaccharide (OSP) of Vibrio cholerae may protect against cholera; however, little is …
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The inverse relationship between national food security and annual cholera incidence: a 30-country analysis
INTRODUCTION: Individual and household-level evidence suggests a relationship between food insecurity and cholera risk. The …
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Hepatitis E should be considered a neglected tropical disease
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Surveillance and the global fight against cholera: Setting priorities and tracking progress
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Cholera prevention and control in refugee settings: Successes and continued challenges
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Measles and the canonical path to elimination
All World Health Organization regions have set measles elimination goals. We find that as countries progress toward these goals, they …
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Projected population-wide impact of antiretroviral therapy-linked isoniazid preventive therapy in a high-burden setting
OBJECTIVE: Both isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduce tuberculosis risk in individuals living with …
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Estimating cholera incidence with cross-sectional serology
The development of new approaches to cholera control relies on an accurate understanding of cholera epidemiology. However, most …
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Genomic insights into the 2016-2017 cholera epidemic in Yemen
Yemen is currently experiencing, to our knowledge, the largest cholera epidemic in recent history. The first cases were declared in …
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Spatiotemporal patterns and diffusion of the 1918 influenza pandemic in British India
The factors that drive spatial heterogeneity and diffusion of pandemic influenza remain debated. We characterized the spatiotemporal …
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The Epidemiology of Cholera in Zanzibar: Implications for the Zanzibar Comprehensive Cholera Elimination Plan
BACKGROUND: Cholera poses a public health and economic threat to Zanzibar. Detailed epidemiologic analyses are needed to inform a …
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Progress and Challenges in Using Oral Cholera Vaccines to Control Outbreaks: The Médecins Sans Frontières Experience
The use of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) has increased since 2011, when Shanchol, the first OCV suitable for large-scale use, became …
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Cholera epidemic in Yemen - Author's reply
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A Multisectoral Emergency Response Approach to a Cholera Outbreak in Zambia: October 2017-February 2018
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Protection of young children with cholera vaccine
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Micro-Hotspots of Risk in Urban Cholera Epidemics
Targeted interventions have been delivered to neighbors of cholera cases in major epidemic responses globally despite limited evidence …
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Immunogenicity and Protection From a Single Dose of Internationally Available Killed Oral Cholera Vaccine: A Systematic Review and Metaanalysis
In addition to improved water supply and sanitation, the 2-dose killed oral cholera vaccine (OCV) is an important tool for the …
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Evaluation of the SD bioline cholera rapid diagnostic test during the 2016 cholera outbreak in Lusaka, Zambia
OBJECTIVE: To assess the performance of the SD Bioline Cholera Ag O1/O139 rapid diagnostic test (RDT) compared to a reference standard …
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The incubation period of hepatitis E genotype 1: insights from pooled analyses of travellers
Hepatitis E virus genotype 1 (HEV G1) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in Africa and Asia. HEV G1’s natural …
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Near real-time forecasting for cholera decision making in Haiti after Hurricane Matthew
Computational models of cholera transmission can provide objective insights into the course of an ongoing epidemic and aid decision …
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Cholera epidemic in Yemen, 2016-18: an analysis of surveillance data
BACKGROUND: In war-torn Yemen, reports of confirmed cholera started in late September, 2016. The disease continues to plague Yemen …
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Cholera Epidemic in South Sudan and Uganda and Need for International Collaboration in Cholera Control
Combining the official cholera line list data and outbreak investigation reports from the ministries of health in Uganda and South …
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Oral cholera vaccine in cholera prevention and control, Malawi
PROBLEM: With limited global supplies of oral cholera vaccine, countries need to identify priority areas for vaccination while …
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Mapping the burden of cholera in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for control: an analysis of data across geographical scales
BACKGROUND: Cholera remains a persistent health problem in sub-Saharan Africa and worldwide. Cholera can be controlled through …
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Deploying digital health data to optimize influenza surveillance at national and local scales
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The potential impact of case-area targeted interventions in response to cholera outbreaks: A modeling study
BACKGROUND: Cholera prevention and control interventions targeted to neighbors of cholera cases (case-area targeted interventions …
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Single-Dose Cholera Vaccine in Response to an Outbreak in Zambia
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Prolonging herd immunity to cholera via vaccination: Accounting for human mobility and waning vaccine effects
BACKGROUND: Oral cholera vaccination is an approach to preventing outbreaks in at-risk settings and controlling cholera in endemic …
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Dried Blood Spots for Measuring Vibrio cholerae-specific Immune Responses
BACKGROUND: Vibrio cholerae causes over 2 million cases of cholera and 90,000 deaths each year. Serosurveillance can be a useful tool …
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The importance of thinking beyond the water-supply in cholera epidemics: A historical urban case-study
BACKGROUND: Planning interventions to respond to cholera epidemics requires an understanding of the major transmission routes. …
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High Prevalence of Shigella or Enteroinvasive Escherichia coli Carriage among Residents of an Internally Displaced Persons Camp in South Sudan
Displaced persons living in camps are at an increased risk of diarrheal diseases. Subclinical carriage of pathogens may contribute to …
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Cholera outbreak in Yemen
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Protection against cholera from killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccines: a systematic review and meta-analysis
BACKGROUND: Killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccines (kOCVs) are becoming a standard cholera control and prevention tool. However, …
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Current and future trends in tuberculosis incidence in New York City: a dynamic modelling analysis
BACKGROUND: After steady decline since the 1990s, tuberculosis (TB) incidence in New York City (NYC) and the United States (US) has …
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What is a Hotspot Anyway?
AbstractThe importance of spatial clusters, or hotspots,'' in infectious disease epidemiology has been increasingly recognized, and …
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Neighborhood-targeted and case-triggered use of a single dose of oral cholera vaccine in an urban setting: Feasibility and vaccine coverage
INTRODUCTION: In June 2015, a cholera outbreak was declared in Juba, South Sudan. In addition to standard outbreak control measures, …
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High Hepatitis E Seroprevalence Among Displaced Persons in South Sudan
AbstractLarge protracted outbreaks of hepatitis E virus (HEV) have been documented in displaced populations in Africa over the past …
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Vaccination against cholera in Juba - Authors' reply
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Model distinguishability and inference robustness in mechanisms of cholera transmission and loss of immunity
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El Niño and the shifting geography of cholera in Africa
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other climate patterns can have profound impacts on the occurrence of infectious diseases …
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MDR-TB treatment as prevention: The projected population-level impact of expanded treatment for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis
BACKGROUND: In 2013, approximately 480,000 people developed active multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), while only 97,000 started …
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Safety of a killed oral cholera vaccine (Shanchol) in pregnant women in Malawi: an observational cohort study
BACKGROUND: Pregnancy increases the risk of harmful effects from cholera for both mothers and their fetuses. A killed oral cholera …
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Adapting to the global shortage of cholera vaccines: targeted single dose cholera vaccine in response to an outbreak in South Sudan
Shortages of vaccines for epidemic diseases, such as cholera, meningitis, and yellow fever, have become common over the past decade, …
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Contact, travel, and transmission: The impact of winter holidays on influenza dynamics in the United States
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Cholera Rapid Test with Enrichment Step Has Diagnostic Performance Equivalent to Culture
Cholera rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) could play a central role in outbreak detection and surveillance in low-resource settings, but …
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Cholera cases cluster in time and space in Matlab, Bangladesh: implications for targeted preventive interventions
BACKGROUND: : Cholera remains a serious public health threat in Asia, Africa and in parts of the Americas. Three World health …
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Mind the Scales: Harnessing Spatial Big Data for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Inference
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How social structures, space, and behaviors shape the spread of infectious diseases using chikungunya as a case study
Whether an individual becomes infected in an infectious disease outbreak depends on many interconnected risk factors, which may relate …
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Effectiveness of one dose of oral cholera vaccine in response to an outbreak: a case-cohort study
BACKGROUND: Oral cholera vaccines represent a new effective tool to fight cholera and are licensed as two-dose regimens with 2-4 weeks …
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Immune Responses to an Oral Cholera Vaccine in Internally Displaced Persons in South Sudan
Despite recent large-scale cholera outbreaks, little is known about the immunogenicity of oral cholera vaccines (OCV) in African …
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Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models
BACKGROUND: The post-2015 End TB Strategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% reduction in mortality …
Rein M G J Houben, Nicolas a Menzies, Tom Sumner, Grace H Huynh, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Jeremy D Goldhaber-Fiebert, Hsien-Ho Lin, Chieh-Yin Wu, Sandip Mandal, Surabhi Pandey, Sze-Chuan Suen, Eran Bendavid, Andrew S. Azman, David W Dowdy, Nicolas Bacaër, Allison S Rhines, Marcus W Feldman, Andreas Handel, Christopher C Whalen, Stewart T Chang, Bradley G Wagner, Philip a Eckhoff, James M Trauer, Justin T Denholm, Emma S McBryde, Ted Cohen, Joshua a Salomon, Carel Pretorius, Marek Lalli, Jeffrey W Eaton, Delia Boccia, Mehran Hosseini, Gabriela B Gomez, Suvanand Sahu, Colleen Daniels, Lucica Ditiu, Daniel P Chin, Lixia Wang, Vineet K Chadha, Kiran Rade, Puneet Dewan, Piotr Hippner, Salome Charalambous, Alison D Grant, Gavin Churchyard, Yogan Pillay, L David Mametja, Michael E Kimerling, Anna Vassall, Richard G White
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Cost-effectiveness and resource implications of aggressive action on tuberculosis in China, India, and South Africa: a combined analysis of nine models
BACKGROUND: The post-2015 End TB Strategy sets global targets of reducing tuberculosis incidence by 50% and mortality by 75% by 2025. …
Nicolas a Menzies, Gabriela B Gomez, Fiammetta Bozzani, Susmita Chatterjee, Nicola Foster, Ines Garcia Baena, Yoko v Laurence, Sun Qiang, Andrew Siroka, Sedona Sweeney, Stéphane Verguet, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Andrew S. Azman, Eran Bendavid, Stewart T Chang, Ted Cohen, Justin T Denholm, David W Dowdy, Philip a Eckhoff, Jeremy D Goldhaber-Fiebert, Andreas Handel, Grace H Huynh, Marek Lalli, Hsien-Ho Lin, Sandip Mandal, Emma S McBryde, Surabhi Pandey, Joshua a Salomon, Sze-Chuan Suen, Tom Sumner, James M Trauer, Bradley G Wagner, Christopher C Whalen, Chieh-Yin Wu, Delia Boccia, Vineet K Chadha, Salome Charalambous, Daniel P Chin, Gavin Churchyard, Colleen Daniels, Puneet Dewan, Lucica Ditiu, Jeffrey W Eaton, Alison D Grant, Piotr Hippner, Mehran Hosseini, David Mametja, Carel Pretorius, Yogan Pillay, Kiran Rade, Suvanand Sahu, Lixia Wang, Rein M G J Houben, Michael E Kimerling, Richard G White, Anna Vassall
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Single-Dose Oral Cholera Vaccine in Bangladesh
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Trends in the Mechanistic and Dynamic Modeling of Infectious Diseases
The dynamics of infectious disease epidemics are driven by interactions between individuals with differing disease status (e.g., …
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Population-Level Effect of Cholera Vaccine on Displaced Populations, South Sudan, 2014
Following mass population displacements in South Sudan, preventive cholera vaccination campaigns were conducted in displaced persons …
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Comparison of inferred relatedness based on multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis and whole genome sequencing of Vibrio cholerae O1
Vibrio cholerae causes cholera, a severe diarrheal disease. Understanding the local genetic diversity and transmission of V. cholerae …
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Correction: The Impact of a One-Dose versus Two-Dose Oral Cholera Vaccine Regimen in Outbreak Settings: A Modeling Study
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Micro-scale Spatial Clustering of Cholera Risk Factors in Urban Bangladesh
Close interpersonal contact likely drives spatial clustering of cases of cholera and diarrhea, but spatial clustering of risk factors …
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Safe water, sanitation, hygiene, and a cholera vaccine
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Effect of Artesunate-Amodiaquine on Mortality Related to Ebola Virus Disease
BACKGROUND: Malaria treatment is recommended for patients with suspected Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa, whether …
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Tracking Cholera through Surveillance of Oral Rehydration Solution Sales at Pharmacies: Insights from Urban Bangladesh
BACKGROUND: In Bangladesh, pharmacy-purchased oral rehydration solution (ORS) is often used to treat diarrhea, including cholera. …
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Detecting signals of seasonal influenza severity through age dynamics
BACKGROUND: Measures of population-level influenza severity are important for public health planning, but estimates are often based on …
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Dengue Virus (DENV) Neutralizing Antibody Kinetics in Children After Symptomatic Primary and Postprimary DENV Infection
The immune response to dengue virus (DENV) infection is complex and not fully understood. Using longitudinal data from 181 children …
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A Novel Tool Improves Existing Estimates of Recent Tuberculosis Transmission in Settings of Sparse Data Collection
In any setting, a proportion of incident active tuberculosis (TB) reflects recent transmission (``recent transmission …
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The First Use of the Global Oral Cholera Vaccine Emergency Stockpile: Lessons from South Sudan
Andrew Azman and colleagues describe their experience of deploying >250,000 doses of oral cholera vaccine in South Sudan in 2014
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The Impact of a One-Dose versus Two-Dose Oral Cholera Vaccine Regimen in Outbreak Settings: A Modeling Study
BACKGROUND: In 2013, a stockpile of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) was created for use in outbreak response, but vaccine availability …
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Long-term efficacy of a hepatitis E vaccine
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Outbreaks of cholera in the time of Ebola: pre-emptive action needed
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Reactive vaccination in the presence of disease hotspots
Reactive vaccination has recently been adopted as an outbreak response tool for cholera and other infectious diseases. Owing to the …
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How much is tuberculosis screening worth? Estimating the value of active case finding for tuberculosis in South Africa, China, and India
BACKGROUND: Current approaches are unlikely to achieve the aggressive global tuberculosis (TB) control targets set for 2035 and beyond. …
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Bold thinking for bold results: modeling the elimination of tuberculosis
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Transforming the fight against tuberculosis: targeting catalysts of transmission
The global tuberculosis control community has committed itself to ambitious 10-year targets. To meet these targets, biomedical advances …
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Sedation depth during spinal anesthesia and survival in elderly patients undergoing hip fracture repair
Low intraoperative Bispectral Index (BIS) values may be associated with increased mortality. In a previously reported trial to prevent …
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Epidemic risk from cholera introductions into Mexico
Stemming from the 2010 cholera outbreak in Haiti, cholera transmission in Hispaniola continues with over 40,000 cases in 2013. The …
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Genetic variation of Vibrio cholerae during outbreaks, Bangladesh, 2010-2011
Cholera remains a major public health problem. To compare the relative contribution of strains from the environment with strains …
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Evaluation of enrichment method for the detection of Vibrio cholerae O1 using a rapid dipstick test in Bangladesh
BACKGROUND: To evaluate the specificity of the Crystal VC dipstick test for detecting cholera. METHODS: We compared direct testing …
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Population-level impact of active tuberculosis case finding in an Asian megacity
BACKGROUND: The potential population-level impact of private-sector initiatives for tuberculosis (TB) case finding in Southeast Asia …
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Household transmission of influenza A and B in a school-based study of non-pharmaceutical interventions
The effect of school-based non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on influenza A and B transmission in children’s households has …
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Urban cholera transmission hotspots and their implications for reactive vaccination: evidence from Bissau City, Guinea bissau
BACKGROUND: Use of cholera vaccines in response to epidemics (reactive vaccination) may provide an effective supplement to traditional …
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The incubation period of cholera: a systematic review
OBJECTIVES: Recent large cholera outbreaks highlight the need for improved understanding of the pathogenesis and epidemiology of …
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